Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 548 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 548 JAX 06:03 → CLT 07:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2298 JAX 18:16 → CLT 19:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 548 American Flight history →	JAX 06:03	CLT 07:27	12%	6%	1.1%	95%
AA 1466 American	JAX 05:12	CLT 06:39	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1834 American Flight history →	JAX 06:18	CLT 07:45	14%	6%	1.1%	92%
AA 1989 American Flight history →	JAX 09:21	CLT 10:50	20%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
AA 1554 American	JAX 09:49	CLT 11:13	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2001 American Flight history →	JAX 13:44	CLT 15:15	25%	5%	1.6%	69%
AA 1462 American	JAX 13:56	CLT 15:24	25%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 1991 American Flight history →	JAX 20:17	CLT 21:50	33%	6%	2.2%	56%
AA 1999 American Flight history →	JAX 18:11	CLT 19:45	37%	6%	2.3%	55%
AA 1464 American	JAX 20:13	CLT 21:37	37%	6%	2.2%	no record
AA 2298 American	JAX 18:16	CLT 19:45	39%	6%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON