Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:25 am at Jacksonville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 1762 at 15:23 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet today UA 1762 JAX 15:23 → DEN 17:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest WN 459 JAX 17:05 → DEN 18:35 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1762 United Flight history →	JAX 15:23	DEN 17:07	18%	6%	0.5%	71%
UA 2014 United	JAX 14:57	DEN 16:36	21%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 2161 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 17:20	DEN 18:50	30%	6%	0.6%	21%
WN 459 Southwest	JAX 17:05	DEN 18:35	31%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON