Today: AA 1171 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–45%.

Safest bet today AA 1171 JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1460 JAX 19:47 → DFW 21:29 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 07:24	DFW 09:12	14%	6%	0.8%	90%
AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 09:04	DFW 11:02	16%	7%	1.0%	91%
AA 1537 American Flight history →	JAX 09:11	DFW 10:53	18%	7%	1.0%	87%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	JAX 11:52	DFW 13:48	30%	8%	1.0%	80%
AA 1975 American Flight history →	JAX 11:31	DFW 13:11	35%	9%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
AA 687 American Flight history →	JAX 13:56	DFW 15:52	37%	9%	1.0%	61%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	JAX 14:25	DFW 16:12	39%	10%	1.0%	57%
AA 1472 American	JAX 17:03	DFW 18:58	40%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 1980 American Flight history →	JAX 19:41	DFW 21:25	42%	7%	2.1%	47%
AA 1460 American	JAX 19:47	DFW 21:29	45%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON