Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:49 am at Jacksonville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:47	DTW 14:08	16%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:22	DTW 20:45	23%	6%	0.6%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	JAX 09:20 → IAH 10:54UA 6224 · flown by Mesa	3h 04m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	8h 39m	96%	85%
United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 59m	93%	84%
American Details →	JAX 13:21 → ORD 15:13AA 4740 · flown by Republic	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 18:11 → DTW 20:46AA 3500 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	99%	81%
United Details →	JAX 09:36 → ORD 11:26UA 1239	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 15:00 → DTW 17:39UA 5867 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	97%	79%
United Details →	JAX 11:33 → ORD 13:30UA 5434 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Chicago	ORD 15:29 → DTW 17:49UA 2632	6h 16m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	JAX 16:55 → STL 18:05WN 449	1h 45m St Louis	STL 19:50 → DTW 22:27WN 3239	5h 32m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	5h 57m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	JAX 17:32 → ATL 18:49DL 2720	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	6h 12m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 20:17 → CLT 21:50AA 1991	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	4h 24m	62%	44%
United Details →	JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34UA 6012 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	5h 19m	46%	41%
Frontier Details →	JAX 20:03 → ATL 21:31F9 3083	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:35 → DTW 00:40 +1F9 1264	4h 37m	53%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON