Today: UA 2673 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet today UA 2673 JAX 06:24 → EWR 08:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 758 JAX 19:09 → EWR 21:29 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2673 United Flight history →	JAX 06:24	EWR 08:48	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 1144 United Flight history →	JAX 09:35	EWR 11:59	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
UA 2796 United Flight history →	JAX 16:48	EWR 19:12	33%	11%	0.6%	60%
UA 399 United	JAX 15:40	EWR 17:58	33%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 2325 United	JAX 19:07	EWR 21:25	41%	14%	1.9%	no record
UA 758 United Flight history →	JAX 19:09	EWR 21:29	41%	13%	1.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON