Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:42 pm at Jacksonville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: MX 1713 at 15:43 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Safest bet today MX 1713 JAX 15:43 → FLL 17:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1417 JAX 15:35 → FLL 16:54 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


MX 1713 Breeze	JAX 15:43	FLL 17:10	31%	19%	1.7%	no record
B6 2117 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 14:12	FLL 15:09	46%	11%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
B6 1417 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 15:35	FLL 16:54	46%	16%	1.3%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON