Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:55 pm at Jacksonville); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: YV 6189 at 19:23, 35%.

Nonstops today


YV 6189 Mesa	JAX 19:23	IAD 21:33	35%	15%	3.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	5h 39m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JAX 20:18 → ATL 21:42DL 2189	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	4h 23m	70%	52%
American Details →	JAX 20:17 → CLT 21:50AA 1991	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	3h 53m	38%	25%
Frontier Details →	JAX 20:05 → ATL 21:32F9 3083	58m Atlanta	ATL 22:30 → IAD 00:34 +1F9 3692	4h 29m	42%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON