Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:00 pm at Jacksonville); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


UA 4047 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 16:23	IAH 17:58	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	8h 39m	92%	77%
American Details →	JAX 13:21 → ORD 15:13AA 4740 · flown by Republic	2h 04m Chicago	ORD 17:17 → IAH 20:14AA 2708	7h 53m	98%	76%
United Details →	JAX 12:35 → IAD 14:44UA 1938	3h 15m Dulles	IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217	8h 50m	96%	68%
United Details →	JAX 15:23 → DEN 17:07UA 1762	2h 28m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	8h 43m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:16DL 2327	6h 26m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	JAX 17:32 → ATL 18:49DL 2720	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 25m	97%	65%
American Details →	JAX 13:55 → DFW 15:52AA 687	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	93%	64%
American Details →	JAX 17:56 → ORD 19:47AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144	6h 55m	83%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	5h 17m	64%	39%
American Details →	JAX 13:55 → DFW 15:52AA 687	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:51 → IAH 18:08AA 1929	5h 13m	64%	37%
American Details →	JAX 16:29 → PHL 18:50AA 5248 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 19:52 → IAH 23:01AA 2457	7h 32m	62%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON