Today: B6 1678 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet today B6 1678 JAX 06:05 → JFK 08:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 678 JAX 18:58 → JFK 21:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1678 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 06:05	JFK 08:30	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1035 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:50	JFK 20:27	26%	9%	2.3%	49%
B6 478 JetBlue	JAX 15:09	JFK 17:33	35%	15%	1.3%	no record
B6 678 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 18:58	JFK 21:22	37%	17%	2.1%	74%worse than usual
DL 4959 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 07:05	JFK 09:29	10%	4%	3.2%	90%
DL 5483 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 12:09	JFK 14:48	20%	9%	5.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON