Today: DL 5797 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–23%.

Safest bet today DL 5797 JAX 06:15 → LGA 08:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5848 JAX 11:23 → LGA 13:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5797 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 06:15	LGA 08:38	7%	6%	0.7%	89%
YX 5633 Republic	JAX 11:28	LGA 13:53	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 5848 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 11:23	LGA 13:47	23%	9%	1.0%	76%
DL 5461 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 15:59	LGA 18:28	39%	17%	9.1%	61%
DL 5471 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 18:59	LGA 21:29	50%	32%	6.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON