Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:47 pm at Jacksonville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2164 at 19:15, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 2164 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 19:15	MDW 20:45	35%	11%	0.8%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	JAX 16:55 → STL 18:05WN 449	3h 55m St Louis	STL 22:00 → MDW 23:15WN 4099	7h 20m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 01m	94%	69%
Southwest Details →	JAX 14:50 → DAL 16:15WN 4585	3h 35m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → MDW 22:05WN 107	8h 15m	97%	59%
Southwest Details →	JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	8h 01m	85%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 20:55 → BNA 21:30WN 2157	55m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MDW 00:11 +1WN 4548	4h 16m	54%	34%
Delta Details →	JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 13m	36%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON