Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:47 pm at Jacksonville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Southwest via Midway, leaving 19:15, 35% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20WN 4085	5h 05m	74%	35%
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:30 → BWI 21:25WN 2159	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → MSP 00:22 +1WN 4479	5h 52m	62%	29%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON