Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 764 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 07:00 → ORD 08:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 6012 JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 07:00	ORD 08:49	10%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 2102 American Flight history →	JAX 07:10	ORD 08:58	10%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:36	ORD 11:26	10%	4%	0.5%	82%
UA 1733 United Flight history →	JAX 07:20	ORD 09:12	12%	4%	0.6%	93%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:11	ORD 09:09	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 13:21	ORD 15:13	18%	5%	1.0%	83%
UA 5434 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 11:33	ORD 13:30	22%	7%	0.9%	78%
MQ 4151 Envoy	JAX 12:34	ORD 14:20	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:40	ORD 14:30	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 17:56	ORD 19:49	33%	8%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	33%	6%	1.3%	70%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	JAX 17:59	ORD 20:00	38%	7%	2.1%	54%
UA 6012 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 18:35	ORD 20:34	41%	7%	2.1%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON