Today: AA 2800 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet today AA 2800 JAX 06:33 → PHL 08:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3480 JAX 13:14 → PHL 15:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2800 American	JAX 06:33	PHL 08:52	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 709 American Flight history →	JAX 09:39	PHL 11:58	16%	6%	0.8%	91%
AA 2865 American Flight history →	JAX 09:47	PHL 11:59	18%	7%	0.8%	85%
F9 2862 Frontier	JAX 09:09	PHL 11:41	22%	14%	2.4%	no record
AA 1990 American Flight history →	JAX 17:50	PHL 20:06	30%	9%	1.6%	50%
AA 1803 American	JAX 17:50	PHL 20:09	31%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history →	JAX 16:29	PHL 18:50	32%	15%	2.7%	54%
AA 3078 American	JAX 16:08	PHL 18:27	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 3480 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 13:14	PHL 15:29	37%	19%	2.4%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON