tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:36 am at Jacksonville); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 17:20, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161 3h 20m Denver DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685 8h 50m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAX 16:23 → IAH 17:58UA 4047 · flown by Mesa 3h 42m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 9h 02m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 16:55 → STL 18:05WN 449 3h 45m St Louis STL 21:50 → PHX 23:05WN 4114 9h 10m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → JAX 17:56 → ORD 19:47AA 3486 · flown by Envoy 3h 03m Chicago ORD 22:50 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435 10h 00m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333 2h 42m Detroit DTW 16:50 → PHX 17:55DL 1135 9h 08m 98% 73%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164 2h 10m Chicago MDW 22:55 → PHX 00:32 +1WN 3803 8h 17m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAX 12:35 → IAD 14:43UA 1938 3h 07m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 10h 11m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 3h 45m Houston IAH 16:56 → PHX 17:58UA 1478 9h 21m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → JAX 20:55 → BNA 21:30WN 2157 55m Nashville BNA 22:25 → PHX 00:16 +1WN 4735 6h 21m 63% 45%
AmericanDetails → JAX 11:51 → DFW 13:48AA 1061 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:42 → PHX 15:17AA 801 6h 26m 66% 41%
AmericanDetails → JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980 1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → PHX 23:32AA 1931 6h 51m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON