tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:06 am at Jacksonville); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1743 at 15:43, 48%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1743 JetBlue Flight history → JAX 15:43 SJU 18:46 48% 22% 1.2% 71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa 1h 52m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 9h 01m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:48 → IAD 13:44UA 2826 3h 40m Dulles IAD 17:24 → SJU 21:24UA 2025 9h 36m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → JAX 11:35 → MIA 13:04AA 2711 2h 36m Miami MIA 15:40 → SJU 18:24AA 3165 6h 49m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → JAX 11:33 → ORD 13:30UA 5434 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Chicago ORD 14:38 → SJU 20:34UA 695 9h 01m 84% 67%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:48 → ATL 13:04DL 2356 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJU 20:45DL 1791 8h 57m 100% 63%
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 39m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → JAX 13:44 → CLT 15:15AA 2001 3h 53m Charlotte CLT 19:08 → SJU 22:59AA 2830 9h 15m 91% 59%
AmericanDetails → JAX 14:25 → DFW 16:12AA 1998 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:52 → SJU 23:50AA 702 9h 25m 86% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024 53m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJU 20:45DL 1791 5h 55m 56% 35%
JetBlueDetails → JAX 15:35 → FLL 16:54B6 1417 51m Fort Lauderdale FLL 17:45 → SJU 20:27B6 553 4h 52m 39% 20%
JetBlueDetails → JAX 13:57 → FLL 15:31B6 2117 49m Fort Lauderdale FLL 16:20 → SJU 19:04B6 153 5h 07m 35% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON