Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:19 pm at Jacksonville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 449 at 16:55, 39%.

Nonstops today


WN 449 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 16:55	STL 18:05	39%	11%	0.6%	51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 17:49 → MSP 19:59DL 2392	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609	6h 33m	90%	75%
United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → STL 22:49UA 4576 · flown by GoJet	6h 54m	88%	74%
American Details →	JAX 17:56 → ORD 19:48AA 3486 · flown by Envoy	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → STL 00:16 +1AA 1004	7h 20m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	5h 51m	95%	68%
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164	1h 19m Chicago	MDW 22:04 → STL 23:22WN 1687	5h 07m	77%	63%
American Details →	JAX 17:59 → ORD 20:00AA 3317	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 22:55 → STL 00:15 +1AA 3069	7h 16m	85%	62%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:14 → STL 20:06DL 2833	4h 52m	81%	56%
American Details →	JAX 17:50 → PHL 20:06AA 1990	1h 53m Philadelphia	PHL 21:59 → STL 23:32AA 1368	6h 42m	83%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 20:55 → BNA 21:30WN 2157	55m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → STL 23:48WN 2379	3h 53m	54%	39%
United Details →	JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34UA 6012 · flown by SkyWest	56m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → STL 22:49UA 4576 · flown by GoJet	5h 14m	40%	33%
American Details →	JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58AA 3049	5h 17m	28%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON