Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:29 am at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:02, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 1536 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:33	ANC 13:30	15%	4%	0.6%	90%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	3h 35m Detroit	DTW 18:35 → ANC 21:20DL 1134	12h 21m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 17:29 → ANC 20:13DL 2367	12h 43m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 19:03 → ANC 21:46AS 582	12h 46m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363	14h 11m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:02 → MSP 20:04DL 2245	2h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 57m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416	14h 08m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	JFK 10:04 → PDX 13:12AS 19	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:32 → ANC 17:19AS 1406	11h 15m	90%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 18:20 → MSP 21:00DL 4933 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 39m	72%	56%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:56 → SEA 20:28DL 740	52m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936	11h 02m	68%	54%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	46m Seattle	SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:39AS 711	11h 10m	46%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON