Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2286 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2286 JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 719 JFK 20:59 → ATL 23:45 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2286 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	ATL 08:29	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 2227 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:40	ATL 11:23	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1029 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:00	ATL 13:33	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2342 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:10	ATL 15:45	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1480 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:41	ATL 18:34	11%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 962 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:00	ATL 22:11	13%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 2293 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:40	ATL 20:46	14%	4%	0.7%	78%
B6 519 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:00	ATL 09:25	30%	5%	0.9%	76%
B6 919 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	ATL 13:34	30%	7%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
F9 4731 Frontier Flight history →	JFK 13:00	ATL 15:50	31%	13%	1.2%	67%
B6 119 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:34	ATL 13:03	33%	10%	0.7%	61%
B6 419 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:08	ATL 17:38	39%	16%	0.8%	63%
B6 719 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	ATL 23:45	41%	16%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON