Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:26 pm at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: B6 675 at 22:40, 50%.

Nonstops today


B6 675 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:40	BDL 23:59	50%	22%	0.6%	64%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443	2h 33m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989	6h 44m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	8h 13m	93%	69%
American Details →	JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44AA 1294	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 21:01 → BDL 23:00AA 2763	7h 30m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 16:00 → MIA 19:26AA 1479	1h 18m Miami	MIA 20:44 → BDL 23:55AA 1272	7h 55m	73%	56%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 16:39 → FLL 19:41B6 1201	1h 14m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460	7h 20m	72%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON