Today: YX 4599 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–39%.

Safest bet today YX 4599 JFK 08:48 → BNA 10:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1173 JFK 17:15 → BNA 18:48 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4599 Republic	JFK 08:48	BNA 10:34	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4710 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:39	BNA 16:21	16%	5%	0.8%	75%
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 13:49	BNA 15:37	20%	6%	0.6%	80%
B6 1373 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:39	BNA 10:09	23%	9%	0.7%	70%
B6 273 JetBlue	JFK 08:07	BNA 09:39	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
B6 1173 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:15	BNA 18:48	39%	13%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
DL 4919 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:44	BNA 09:20	17%	5%	2.6%	83%
DL 4908 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:00	BNA 22:05	26%	14%	7.8%	74%
DL 4909 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:50	BNA 17:47	26%	12%	5.8%	74%
DL 4662 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 11:30	BNA 13:13	27%	11%	4.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON