Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5765 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 5765 JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 618 JFK 16:55 → BOS 18:27 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5765 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:26	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 4376 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:10	BOS 09:34	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
YX 4364 Republic	JFK 08:50	BOS 10:14	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5733 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	BOS 11:15	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
B6 2718 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:14	11%	3%	1.2%	89%
B6 1018 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	BOS 11:33	20%	6%	0.8%	84%
DL 5595 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:30	BOS 16:08	20%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 4634 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:35	BOS 22:59	22%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 5798 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:16	25%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 4346 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:06	26%	9%	0.8%	61%
B6 2918 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:25	BOS 11:32	28%	6%	0.7%	64%
DL 2639 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:00	BOS 22:43	28%	9%	0.7%	71%
B6 1118 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:20	BOS 14:43	35%	13%	0.8%	63%
B6 1318 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:29	BOS 23:59	44%	14%	0.9%	65%
B6 818 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:55	BOS 17:22	44%	19%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
B6 618 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:55	BOS 18:27	46%	17%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON