tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:17 BUR 20:35 26% 12% 1.2% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 8h 54m 99% 91%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:02 → PDX 13:13AS 19 1h 42m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 10h 11m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → JFK 09:16 → PHX 11:36AA 1769 3h 05m Phoenix PHX 14:41 → BUR 16:11AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 9h 55m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 1h 54m Phoenix PHX 16:37 → BUR 18:07AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 3h 02m Seattle SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:59AS 529 11h 59m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 8h 35m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 3h 04m Seattle SEA 19:23 → BUR 21:59AS 1408 11h 59m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON