Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2473 at 17:25, 45%.

Safest bet today B6 2473 JFK 17:25 → CHS 19:52 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


B6 2473 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:25	CHS 19:52	45%	19%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
DL 5200 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:10	CHS 16:44	25%	8%	4.9%	75%
DL 5293 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:50	CHS 21:33	28%	12%	6.3%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON