Today: AA 4670 at 10:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–41%.

Safest bet today AA 4670 JFK 10:14 → CLE 12:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 2768 JFK 20:39 → CLE 22:31 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4670 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:14	CLE 12:10	9%	3%	0.2%	87%
AA 4453 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 12:59	CLE 14:54	9%	3%	0.2%	84%
AA 4389 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:35	CLE 16:34	11%	4%	0.3%	83%
YX 4498 Republic	JFK 15:44	CLE 17:40	16%	5%	0.2%	no record
B6 2768 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:39	CLE 22:31	41%	16%	0.9%	68%
DL 5018 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:05	CLE 11:06	13%	4%	3.2%	87%
DL 4975 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:30	CLE 16:35	21%	6%	4.8%	79%
DL 4946 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 21:30	CLE 23:43	31%	13%	7.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON