Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4538 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 4538 JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4538 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DCA 07:59	8%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:27	DCA 07:53	10%	3%	0.9%	67%
DL 5750 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:35	DCA 10:09	11%	2%	0.8%	92%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:04	DCA 09:30	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DCA 09:56	16%	3%	0.8%	60%
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:00	DCA 23:31	18%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	22%	7%	0.8%	68%
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	50%	22%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON