Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 532 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 532 JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 97 JFK 20:16 → DEN 22:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 532 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DEN 10:58	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 457 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:00	DEN 18:50	16%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 424 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:50	DEN 22:45	16%	4%	0.6%	70%
B6 1497 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:04	DEN 14:17	19%	5%	0.7%	83%
B6 97 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:16	DEN 22:59	33%	10%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON