Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 475 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 475 JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 606 JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 475 American Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DFW 09:29	12%	2%	1.3%	96%
AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	14%	3%	1.3%	85%
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:41	DFW 14:39	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	JFK 11:21	DFW 14:17	17%	5%	1.0%	76%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	20%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 3164 American	JFK 14:57	DFW 17:53	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 16:08	DFW 18:49	25%	6%	1.0%	69%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 17:25	DFW 20:30	26%	6%	0.9%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON