Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2343 at 12:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2343 JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 820 JFK 21:45 → DTW 23:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2343 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:59	DTW 15:00	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 1654 Delta	JFK 12:55	DTW 14:46	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2443 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	DTW 18:57	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 1253 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:30	DTW 22:04	16%	6%	0.9%	71%
B6 920 JetBlue	JFK 14:28	DTW 16:26	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
B6 820 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:45	DTW 23:59	41%	14%	0.9%	63%
DL 5080 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:15	DTW 09:25	13%	5%	3.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON