Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1422 JFK 07:00 → FLL 10:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1701 JFK 20:00 → FLL 23:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	FLL 10:07	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 05:50	FLL 08:50	9%	3%	0.8%	85%
B6 2701 JetBlue	JFK 05:39	FLL 08:42	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	FLL 14:24	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:30	FLL 18:54	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	FLL 23:28	16%	5%	0.7%	68%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:17	FLL 11:09	20%	5%	0.7%	87%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:00	FLL 15:10	20%	6%	0.7%	68%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:29	FLL 12:46	21%	7%	0.7%	65%
B6 1501 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:43	FLL 21:04	30%	12%	0.7%	64%
B6 1701 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	FLL 23:23	33%	14%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON