tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:56 am at New York)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:41, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 10m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 7h 10m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → JFK 16:09 → DFW 18:48AA 1953 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 8h 47m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 8h 42m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:21 → DFW 14:17AA 2049 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 7h 58m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 100% 59%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 8h 29m 96% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON