Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5835 JFK 10:14 → IAD 11:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest YX 5779 JFK 16:01 → IAD 17:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:14	IAD 11:49	10%	2%	0.2%	87%
YX 5809 Republic	JFK 10:09	IAD 11:38	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
YX 5779 Republic	JFK 16:01	IAD 17:30	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON