tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: B6 1381 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:20 IAH 11:07 28% 7% 0.6% 66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 14:29 IAH 17:19 38% 13% 0.7% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → ORD 10:02AA 4356 · flown by Republic 3h 27m Chicago ORD 13:29 → IAH 16:25AA 4426 · flown by Republic 9h 26m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:25 → IAH 14:35DL 1307 8h 20m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 59m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343 1h 51m Detroit DTW 16:51 → IAH 18:52DL 1529 6h 53m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 8h 33m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 11h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:47 → LAX 16:44DL 701 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 11h 12m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 1h 28m Detroit DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633 6h 54m 92% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON