Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4446 JFK 20:00 → IND 22:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 4914 JFK 18:21 → IND 20:37 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4446 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:00	IND 22:35	37%	9%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
YX 4423 Republic	JFK 20:19	IND 22:51	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 4914 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 18:21	IND 20:37	39%	14%	0.8%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON