Today: DL 607 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet today DL 607 JFK 07:00 → LAS 09:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1511 JFK 22:00 → LAS 00:49 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	9%	2%	0.3%	85%
AA 3038 American Flight history →	JFK 07:59	LAS 10:40	10%	3%	0.2%	92%
AA 1473 American	JFK 07:41	LAS 10:07	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:00	LAS 15:45	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	15%	6%	0.8%	71%
DL 781 Delta Flight history →	JFK 21:49	LAS 00:39	17%	6%	0.9%	71%
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	18%	5%	0.3%	82%
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	19%	4%	0.3%	82%
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:05	LAS 14:41	24%	14%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	25%	8%	0.5%	84%
AA 2855 American Flight history →	JFK 18:30	LAS 21:23	25%	9%	1.2%	74%
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:58	LAS 21:23	26%	9%	1.6%	no record
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:45	LAS 19:30	26%	11%	0.5%	83%
B6 1411 JetBlue	JFK 22:08	LAS 00:42	30%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 1511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:00	LAS 00:49	31%	10%	1.2%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 19:03 → ORD 20:46AA 4454 · flown by Republic	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → LAS 23:53AA 1880	7h 50m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	7h 35m	86%	72%
Delta Details →	JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	7h 52m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON