Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 19:35 → LAX 22:49 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	10%	2%	1.2%	89%
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	11%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1905 Delta	JFK 11:06	LAX 14:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 701 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:47	LAX 16:44	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	12%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	12%	2%	0.6%	81%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	12%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 767 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:49	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:50	LAX 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:53	LAX 17:50	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	14%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:05	LAX 18:09	15%	5%	0.6%	77%
DL 353 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:05	LAX 19:13	15%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 12:46	LAX 15:43	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	15%	3%	1.0%	87%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:53	LAX 18:49	16%	5%	0.6%	75%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:09	16%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	16%	3%	1.0%	85%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:37	LAX 12:40	18%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	18%	5%	0.6%	73%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	18%	4%	0.7%	81%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:59	LAX 14:01	19%	6%	0.7%	72%
B6 1123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 14:05	19%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	20%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	22%	6%	1.0%	83%
AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	23%	6%	0.9%	73%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:16	LAX 19:20	24%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 20:00	LAX 23:24	24%	6%	0.8%	74%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	26%	10%	0.7%	71%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	27%	6%	0.8%	76%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	30%	12%	0.8%	58%
B6 823 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:50	LAX 21:02	30%	12%	0.7%	63%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:35	LAX 22:49	31%	13%	0.7%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58DL 532	1h 31m Denver	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	8h 26m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:10 → PHX 10:30DL 791	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 32m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON