Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:50 pm at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5408 at 16:42, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5408 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 16:42	MCI 18:57	33%	8%	0.4%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 19:03 → ORD 20:47AA 4454 · flown by Republic	1h 53m Chicago	ORD 22:40 → MCI 00:22 +1AA 4745 · flown by Republic	6h 19m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	7h 18m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:02 → MSP 20:04DL 2245	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58DL 1657	5h 56m	79%	62%
American Details →	JFK 16:00 → MIA 19:26AA 1479	2h 19m Miami	MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670	8h 59m	92%	56%
American Details →	JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036	7h 58m	87%	47%
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 21:34 → MCI 22:58AA 1732	6h 58m	90%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → MCI 00:13 +1DL 2993	8h 46m	65%	48%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443	52m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	5h 19m	62%	48%
American Details →	JFK 17:43 → MIA 20:35AA 2603	1h 10m Miami	MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670	7h 16m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON