Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2049 at 07:05, 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 2049 JFK 07:05 → MCO 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 2583 JFK 20:00 → MCO 23:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	8%	3%	1.8%	84%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	12%	3%	1.3%	78%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	13%	3%	1.2%	81%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:39	MCO 10:27	19%	6%	1.9%	75%
B6 383 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:55	MCO 14:03	20%	8%	1.2%	71%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	21%	8%	2.1%	76%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	22%	8%	2.1%	67%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:05	MCO 12:53	24%	6%	1.2%	81%
DL 1543 Delta	JFK 15:15	MCO 18:02	27%	9%	2.1%	no record
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:11	27%	12%	1.8%	69%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:55	MCO 22:09	39%	18%	2.1%	62%
B6 1083 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MCO 00:07	39%	21%	2.2%	67%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:55	MCO 17:44	41%	19%	2.1%	60%
B6 2583 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	MCO 23:08	42%	17%	2.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON