Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1528 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1528 JFK 07:05 → MIA 10:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1174 JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	7%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	8%	2%	1.8%	95%
AA 2161 American	JFK 05:53	MIA 08:41	12%	2%	1.8%	no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	13%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	14%	2%	1.3%	85%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	15%	6%	0.8%	72%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	16%	6%	1.2%	70%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 10:17	MIA 13:22	17%	4%	1.3%	76%
AA 525 American Flight history →	JFK 11:45	MIA 14:50	18%	4%	1.3%	73%
AA 683 American Flight history →	JFK 13:59	MIA 17:16	22%	4%	1.8%	74%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	JFK 16:00	MIA 19:26	24%	6%	1.8%	68%
AA 642 American	JFK 14:12	MIA 17:16	25%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 2026 American Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MIA 00:21	26%	7%	2.1%	59%
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	28%	6%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON