tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:30 ONT 22:36 28% 12% 0.7% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:42 → ONT 11:42DL 1173 8h 42m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 10h 21m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 15:35 → ONT 16:30DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 10:02 → PDX 13:13AS 19 1h 17m Portland PDX 14:30 → ONT 16:52AS 2093 · flown by Horizon 9h 50m 91% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 90% 73%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:10 → ONT 13:24AA 2635 9h 54m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:50 → ONT 12:25AA 2661 8h 23m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 10h 30m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 8h 07m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON