Today: AA 4356 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–41%.

Safest bet today AA 4356 JFK 07:59 → ORD 10:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 405 JFK 20:15 → ORD 21:53 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4356 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 07:59	ORD 10:02	10%	3%	0.3%	85%
AA 2907 American	JFK 07:12	ORD 08:42	14%	5%	0.2%	no record
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:05	ORD 08:50	15%	5%	0.3%	90%
DL 5640 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:35	ORD 21:52	17%	7%	1.0%	65%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:11	ORD 12:05	19%	4%	0.2%	89%
AA 3321 American Flight history →	JFK 13:59	ORD 15:53	21%	7%	0.4%	79%
YX 5599 Republic	JFK 19:43	ORD 21:26	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 788 American	JFK 10:27	ORD 11:56	22%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 4454 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:03	ORD 20:46	23%	6%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
B6 805 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	ORD 21:58	41%	16%	1.3%	35%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:15	ORD 21:53	41%	14%	1.3%	65%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 10:30	ORD 12:20	14%	3%	7.0%	86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:30	ORD 09:25	26%	14%	12.5%	74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON