Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4359 JFK 12:48 → ORF 14:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 5856 JFK 16:00 → ORF 17:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4359 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 12:48	ORF 14:25	9%	2%	0.4%	83%
DL 5856 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 16:00	ORF 17:56	15%	4%	0.5%	64%
DL 5326 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 21:29	ORF 23:23	29%	14%	7.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON