Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1638 JFK 15:45 → PBI 19:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest B6 1053 JFK 19:00 → PBI 22:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1638 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:45	PBI 19:04	28%	6%	4.3%	74%
B6 53 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:29	PBI 16:30	33%	11%	7.0%	73%
B6 1053 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:00	PBI 22:15	37%	15%	7.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON