Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 791 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 791 JFK 08:10 → PHX 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2689 JFK 19:30 → PHX 22:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	15%	3%	1.3%	82%
AA 1769 American Flight history →	JFK 09:16	PHX 11:36	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 2099 American	JFK 08:56	PHX 11:07	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	15%	2%	1.0%	88%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:29	PHX 20:08	16%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 784 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:55	PHX 23:37	20%	5%	0.7%	65%
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:05	PHX 12:31	22%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	PHX 19:31	25%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 2689 American Flight history →	JFK 19:30	PHX 22:01	28%	7%	1.2%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	91%	81%
American Details →	JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Columbus	CMH 18:00 → PHX 19:09AA 1689	7h 25m	91%	71%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → PHX 13:00AA 1685	7h 45m	91%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON