Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5685 at 15:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 5685 JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 1195 JFK 21:55 → PIT 23:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5685 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:10	PIT 17:15	13%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 4611 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:30	PIT 22:27	13%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 4734 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 16:51	PIT 18:43	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 5795 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:29	PIT 21:39	15%	5%	0.9%	74%
YX 5754 Republic	JFK 19:48	PIT 21:30	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 1195 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:55	PIT 23:46	35%	14%	1.0%	66%
DL 5086 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	PIT 11:45	20%	8%	5.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON