tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:02 pm at New York)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 23:06, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 23:06 PVD 00:13 37% 15% 0.7% 68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 2h 33m Detroit DTW 21:30 → PVD 23:36DL 3795 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 92% 71%
AmericanDetails → JFK 13:59 → ORD 15:53AA 3321 3h 21m Chicago ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43AA 1293 8h 44m 91% 68%
AmericanDetails → JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 21:57 → PVD 00:11 +1AA 2318 7h 11m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 6h 59m 92% 66%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 8h 16m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → JFK 16:38 → FLL 19:40B6 1201 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:30 → PVD 23:38B6 1196 7h 00m 37% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON