Today: DL 5297 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–46%.

Safest bet today DL 5297 JFK 22:47 → ROC 00:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 1186 JFK 22:25 → ROC 00:04 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 5297 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 22:47	ROC 00:04	24%	8%	0.7%	73%
DL 5299 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 14:46	ROC 16:02	25%	9%	0.6%	75%
B6 186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:40	ROC 19:17	42%	14%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
B6 1186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:25	ROC 00:04	46%	18%	0.6%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON