tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:14 am at New York); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: DL 683 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–37%.

Safest bet today DL 683 JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 709 JFK 17:30 → SAN 20:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time
Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
DL 683 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:55 SAN 11:55 17% 4% 0.4% 82%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history → JFK 11:30 SAN 14:27 26% 4% 0.5% 77%
DL 685 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:29 SAN 23:43 27% 6% 0.8% 75%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:59 SAN 19:01 29% 5% 0.5% 82%worse than usual
AS 25 Alaska Flight history → JFK 16:57 SAN 20:08 35% 4% 0.6% 78%worse than usual
DL 709 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:30 SAN 20:34 37% 6% 0.4% 75%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:02 → MSP 20:04DL 2245 1h 43m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 8h 28m 87% 70%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:47 → LAX 20:45DL 738 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 8h 55m 93% 69%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 1h 26m Detroit DTW 20:23 → SAN 22:01DL 700 8h 31m 87% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON