Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: B6 741 at 06:30, 16%.

Safest bet today B6 741 JFK 06:30 → SAV 08:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 341 JFK 10:33 → SAV 12:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 741 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:30	SAV 08:48	16%	4%	0.8%	89%
B6 341 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:33	SAV 12:55	42%	11%	0.8%	59%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:34	SAV 11:07	13%	3%	4.0%	87%
DL 5459 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:59	SAV 21:49	21%	9%	7.8%	79%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:50	SAV 17:31	21%	5%	4.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON