Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1719 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1719 JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 263 JFK 17:36 → SEA 21:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1719 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SEA 14:50	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 688 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:25	SEA 23:08	13%	5%	0.6%	68%
DL 699 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:14	14%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:56	SEA 20:28	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
AS 31 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:29	SEA 20:09	20%	6%	0.8%	74%
AS 23 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 13:00	SEA 16:19	22%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 17 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 20:23	SEA 23:55	23%	6%	0.8%	51%
AS 21 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:16	24%	4%	0.8%	68%
B6 263 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:36	SEA 21:04	28%	10%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 45m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 25m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:02 → MSP 20:03DL 2245	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 56m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON